Myanmar at a turning point?

At a time when the headlines are dominated by the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, Myanmar remains one of the world's forgotten conflicts. The country is the scene of the worst humanitarian crisis in the strategically important Indo-Pacific region. It is no coincidence that it is ranked 5th on the International Rescue Committee's 2024 Emergency Watchlist . On the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index, the country ranks second to last below North Korea. Myanmar - long a blind spot in European engagement in the region - is also at the centre of geopolitical trends and global challenges. After nine years of democratic opening between 2012 and 2021, Myanmar now exemplifies the rise of authoritarian regimes and the global crisis of democracy. The country is a hotspot for trends ranging from climate change and biodiversity loss to religious extremism, from refugee movements to international drug trafficking. So the international community ignores Myanmar at its own peril.

At the same time, there has been reason for optimism in Myanmar since 2023. The Myanmar democracy movement has come a long way since the coup in February 2021, evolving from a spontaneous movement of mass civilian protests into a revolutionary resistance movement. For the first time in Myanmar's history, there is a broad alliance of ethnic groups against the regime. The People's Defence Forces (PDF) are on the advance in many areas of Myanmar. Recently resistance groups were able to achieve significant victories against the military with Operation 1027. The last six months in particular have been a turning point in the Myanmar people's "Spring Revolution" against military rule.